Unusual Weather

It is raining today in the Salt Lake Valley; this is unusual because, in March, we usually have snow, not rain.

But the unusual weather today in Utah is not as bad as the weather inside Congress in Washington. Today, the representatives in “the people’s house” will vote on the American Health Care Act, a bill that is publicized as the beginning of the repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act; the same Affordable Care Act that then-presidential candidate Donald Trump said he would repeal on Day 1 of his term in office. Well, he didn’t get to repeal the ACA on Day 1, and right now (8:11 AM MDT), it looks like he won’t get the AHCA passed by Congress today, either.

For this piece of legislation to pass in the House, the Republican party can afford only 21 no votes from its members. As of Wednesday night, 24 Republicans have publicly stated they will vote no. No Democrats have indicated they will vote yes. Right now, there is strong opposition to this bill from the health care sector and insurance companies, both groups that are normally strong supporters of, and donors to, republican politicians and the republican party.

It is also opposed by the AARP and the March of Dimes, because it would raise insurance rates on older Americans and drastically cut funding for Medicaid and health insurance subsidies, subsidies that have allowed millions of Americans to afford health insurance. CHIP, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, is also a part of Medicaid. What about the children? Oh, yes, they don’t vote. But, their parents and grandparents do.

Those states that accepted ACA money to expand Medicaid to previously uninsured residents would see that money disappear, which would put state governments in a lose-lose scenario. The states would either raise taxes, to replace the lost federal money, or cut recipients off the Medicaid roles. Neither of these choices would be good in the next election for the existing state politicians. To understand the value of federal funding for Medicaid, consider this fact:

Fourteen states receive the minimum of federal Medicaid money ($1 from the Federal government for every $1 of state money; while the remaining 37 (including DC) receive 50.1% to 73.1% of their Medicaid moneys from the federal government. Eleven states (ID, UT, AZ, NM, AR, MS, AL, SC, KY, WV, DC), all of which are nominally “red” states, receive between 67% and 73% of their Medicaid money from the federal government. (source: The Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured)

Can the Republican members of Congress from those states vote yes on this bill, and then look their constitutes in the eyes in the 

next election cycle?

There is a tsunami approaching Washington DC right now.

Your comments, as always, are welcome.

RMH

http://kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-financing-how-does-it-work-and-what-are-the-implications/  retrieved March 23, 2017 at 9:05 AM MDT